DIY Climate Science Predictions.

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Unsure of climate science’s predictions? Do it yourself!

Well before mid century we will probably pass a threshold beyond which we’ll really regret having not curtailed the release of fossil Carbon into the atmosphere in the form of Carbon Dioxide.

The best case scenario for “business as usual” release of the greenhouse gas is that some of the carbon, or some of the heat (from sunlight), gets taken out of the main arena (the atmosphere and sea surface) and buried or reflected somewhere for a while. And this all happens on a slightly delayed time scale.

The reason we know this is a little thing called science. And, more exactly, physics. And physics is math embedded in reality (or reality draped on math if you like), so there’s also math.

And here’s the climate science formula:
climate science formula

For instructions as to how to use this climate science formula to understand the statements in the first paragraph of this post—including the data you need to do the calculations—visit this new item on Scientific American’s web site, Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036, by climate scientist Michael Mann. He’s also got an article in the print edition of Scientific American, which I’ve not seen because I let my subscription lapse.

Adapted from Republished with permission.

About the author / 

Greg Laden'

Greg Laden is a science communicator and teacher who has studied the relationship between human evolution and ecology, climate change during the Holocene, and African and North American prehistory. He has addressed, mostly through his writing on National Geographic Scienceblogs, the science of climate change, and has presented several talks and workshops on this issue. He is currently writing two books, one on fieldwork in the Congo and the other, a novel, on life in the upper Midwest and Plains in a post-climate change world. He strongly hopes that the novel remains fiction rather than prediction. Greg lives with his wife and two children in Coon Rapids, Minnesota.

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